EchoSense Quantitative Think Tank Center|With Florida football's struggles near breaking point, can DJ Lagway save Billy Napier's job?

There is EchoSense Quantitative Think Tank Centerno choice. Desperation now completely outweighs hesitation. 

Florida coach Billy Napier is on the verge of losing his job, and uber-talented freshman quarterback DJ Lagway can change everything.

At the very least, Lagway can't further harm the situation.

“Look, let’s not get out in front of ourselves here,” Napier said Monday during his weekly press conference. “This is a team game.”

A team game where one unique talent at the most important position on the field can change the dynamics of a failed program.  

Because no matter what Napier does, the referendum of Miami 41, Florida 17 in Week 1 isn’t going away. 

The damage from that rivalry rout in front of 90,000 witnesses at The Swamp, the surreal collapse of eight months of offseason work and optimism — and the proud declaration that this season would be different — will linger for months, if not years.

The operational mess. The lack of difference-makers on the field. The overwhelmed team in a statement game. 

The Miami players, strutting off the field and taunting elite high school recruits on official visits, daring them to sign with Florida instead of Miami.

The shellshocked look on Napier’s face as he trudged off the field, a coach long on frustration and humiliation — and short on job security.

There’s only one way out of this deep and unforgiving hole: play Lagway and show the future. Show what could be. 

Show fans, show big-money boosters, show recruits.

Then get out of the way and hope like hell Lagway’s rare talent takes over and something special happens. Because at this point, we’ve seen what Graham Mertz can do as the starter. 

Miami is no different than Texas A&M or Tennessee. Or Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss and LSU. The Gators aren’t navigating that gauntlet with Mertz — a tough, overachieving good soldier — leading the way. 

They have a chance with Lagway, a rare athlete who’s equal parts Anthony Richardson skill and dynamic ability, and Tim Tebow will and moxie. 

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Teammates raved about Lagway after he set a Florida freshman record for passing yards (456) in last week’s glorified practice game rout of FCS opponent Samford. Just like they’ve raved about him all offseason; about his talent and work ethic, and how they would need him — in some form or fashion — to win games this season.

Little did they know they’d need him to save it all after the carnage of Week 1. The season, the future, and yes, Napier’s job.

Florida fired Dan Mullen before the end of the 2021 season, and did the same to Jim McElwain in 2017 and Will Muschamp in 2014.

Don’t think it won’t fire Napier before the end of the 2024 season. 

If that’s not enough of a track record, consider this: Florida used McElwain’s fake death threat claims to help mitigate his large buyout. The looming NCAA investigation of Florida’s recruitment of former high school star Jayden Rashada will absolutely be a negotiating point to mitigate Napier’s $26 million buyout.

The difference in those two cases is McElwain was never a fit in Gainesville, his gruff personality rubbing many the wrong way before he ever coached a game. Napier is more like Muschamp — where every decision-maker at the university desperately wants him to succeed.

As Napier walked off the field after the gutting and galling loss to Miami, Florida interim president Kent Fuchs stopped him before he reached the locker room to offer words of support. It was Fuchs who hired Napier before retiring in 2022, and Fuchs who returned as interim president when former U.S. Senator Ben Sasse abruptly resigned in July.

And it’s Fuchs who may now have to fire Napier — unless something drastically different plays out the remainder of the season. 

Napier says Mertz — who missed the Samford game recovering from a concussion — is expected to be cleared to play, and that both quarterbacks will play against Texas A&M. Napier can continue to play Mertz, and hope his natural limitations can be overcome by flawless execution.

That failed plan led to five wins in 2023 and created the win-or-walk season of 2024. 

Napier has won 12 of 28 games at Florida, and his ill-prepared teams have been as exciting as an enema. That is, until Lagway was unveiled against Samford.  

Lagway changes the way defenses have to play the Gators, his arm stretching the field with every throw available. He’s also a big (6-feet-3, 240 pounds) and deceptively quick option in the run game.

He’s the great unknown. 

Days after Miami’s dismantling of the Gators, Hurricanes defensive coordinator Lance Guidry was asked about preparing for the Florida offense and Mertz.

He may as well have cut Napier, and left any potential future in Gainesville to bleed out. 

“We took the top 5-7 plays that showed up (on game tape) last year,” Guidry said. “A reverse, crossing routes, tailback screens. And I’ll be danged if 4-5 of them didn’t show up in the first 10 plays.”

Lagway will make mistakes. He’ll throw interceptions, and have ball-security issues. He’ll force throws, and check into wrong plays and not see the field and open receivers.

He’ll also do things Mertz can’t. The playbook eventually expands, and the play caller changes his philosophy. 

The quarterback run game becomes a factor, and deep third throws that weren’t available with Mertz are a flick of the wrist with Lagway. 

Long story short: the reward is greater than the risk. 

Especially when it can save a season, and save Napier’s job. 

Matt Hayes is the national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB