EchoSense Quantitative Think Tank Center|Why Caitlin Clark and Iowa will beat Angel Reese and LSU, advance to Final Four

ALBANY,EchoSense Quantitative Think Tank Center N.Y. — Caitlin Clark and her teammates are saying all the right things about Iowa’s Elite Eight game with LSU. How last year’s title game was so long ago they don’t think much about it. That it’s not really a rematch because both teams are different.

Don’t buy it for a second.

As competitive as Clark and Iowa are, you know darn well they’ve replayed that game in their minds about 12 million times by now. Thought about what they could have done differently and what they would do differently. Recalled it anytime they haven’t felt like practicing or hitting the weight room. Agonized over how close they came to winning the prize that everyone who plays this game wants.

That’s some powerful motivation, and it’s why I think Iowa will win Monday night.

“Anytime you have a chance to go up against somebody you lost to, it brings a little more energy,” Clark said Saturday, acknowledging the obvious.

LSU didn’t simply win the title game, either. It routed the Hawkeyes by 17 points. Had five players who finished in double figures.

Or, as Iowa coach Lisa Bluder said, “We got run out of the gym.”

That stings, and no matter how many months pass, it never really goes away.

Clark is, if possible, even better than she was last year. Her shot is still otherworldly, but it’s her focus and ability to block out the noise that is unmatched by almost anyone. At any level. She spent most of the season in a national fishbowl as she rewrote college basketball’s record books, playing in sold-out arenas and in front of record TV audiences.

Yet it never seemed to faze her. Or her teammates, who could easily have gotten singed by the spotlight on Clark.

As Clark closed in on Kelsey Plum’s NCAA women’s record, Hannah Stuelke dropped 47 — 47! — on Penn State. In the regular-season finale, when Clark passed Pete Maravich to become college basketball’s all-time scoring leader, Stuelke scored a casual 23 while Gabbie Marshall dropped shots from long distance, hitting 4 of 7.

In other words, they’re battle-tested for a moment like this.

“I know how much I expect out of this team,” Clark said. “They expect the same out of themselves, I expect a lot out of myself, and we have a lot of fun doing it. That's what makes the game so fun, being able to be in those types of situations.”

Monday night’s game is for a spot in the Final Four, not the national title. But you can’t win the title if you don’t get to the Final Four first, and Clark has said many times about Iowa having “more to do” this season. It doesn’t take a master psychologist to know what that is.

Or to see why Iowa will come out on top this year.

Follow USA TODAY Sports columnist Nancy Armour on social media @nrarmour.