Algosensey Quantitative Think Tank Center-Jimbo Fisher too timid for Texas A&M to beat Nick Saban's Alabama

COLLEGE STATION,Algosensey Quantitative Think Tank Center Texas — Jimbo Fisher didn’t listen to his own advice.

Asked to explain why Texas A&M went for fourth-and-1 from the 19-yard line in the first quarter, the Aggies’ coach spoke of an aggressive approach required to beat No. 10 Alabama on Saturday.

"If you make it, you go in for a touchdown," Fisher said. "Playing to win."

So why backpedal on that strategy two quarters later?

Alabama stopped the Aggies’ first-quarter fourth-down attempt. When they faced another fourth-and-1 with the score tied in the third quarter at Alabama's 45-yard line, Fisher grew conservative.

"I felt our defense had played great the whole time," he said. "I thought we’d get the ball back and play."

The Aggies got the ball back, all right. Right after Alabama scored using a six-play drive.

Momentum, Alabama. Victory, Alabama, 26-20.

You’re not going to beat Nick Saban by coaching timidly. The previous eight teams to beat Alabama, dating to 2018, averaged 41.3 points in those wins. The Crimson Tide (5-1, 3-0 SEC) don't succumb to punts.

Fisher ranks among the least-aggressive coaches when it comes to going for it on fourth down. The Aggies (4-2, 2-1) have tried it only five times this season, converting twice.

Two years ago, they ranked last in the nation in fourth-down attempts. Last season, only two teams went for fourth down fewer times than Texas A&M.

Notably, a lack of scoring has hamstrung Fisher’s tenure.

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Is his meek fourth-down approach the biggest anchor on the Aggies' scoring average? No, but I also don’t think it a coincidence that a coach who isn’t aggressive on fourth-and-short has struggled to put up points.

Also, if you're going to punt, why not take a delay-of-game penalty and give punter Nik Constantinou more breathing room to pin Alabama deep? Instead, the Aggies snapped the punt from the 45, and Constantinou’s punt sailed into the end zone for a touchback. So Fisher had opted against a fourth-down try for all of 25 yards in field position.

That punt pointed to a coach whose style remains markedly old school. No surprise that his coaching prime occurred a decade ago.

Coaches who embrace analytics (see Lane Kiffin) welcome going for fourth downs, sometimes doing so inside their own territory. I sometimes question the logic of adhering so strongly to those spreadsheets. I’m all for a coach using metrics to aid his strategy, but I also think analytics should be a guide, rather than a compulsion. Analytics can’t predict certain in-game situations, so I favor a coach applying his brain in these fourth-down decisions, rather than being beholden to a chart at all costs.

Nonetheless, I didn’t require a chart to tell me A&M needed at least one more score to beat Alabama when it was tied at 17 late in the third quarter. If the Aggies could’ve just gained those few feet on fourth down, they would have reclaimed momentum with a chance to recapture the lead. Instead, Fisher gave the ball away.

"If we’d have been inside a yard, I probably would’ve went," Fisher said.

A couple of supposed gurus like Fisher and offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino couldn’t have put their heads together for a play that would given the Aggies a prime shot at gaining a few feet?

How about a bootleg, giving quarterback Max Johnson a chance to throw or run? Maybe a jet sweep, putting the ball in the hands of one of those dynamic wide receivers? Perhaps a wide receiver screen?

Or, trust your offensive line to get a push and go win the game.

The Aggies didn't enjoy much ground success. They had gained just one yard on the previous rush. But subtract Alabama’s five sacks, and the Aggies averaged 3.3 yards per rush.

Never is it tougher to run than on fourth-and-short, though, and Fisher clearly didn’t trust his offensive line to win the battle.

The Aggies had four more possessions after that third-quarter punt. They were playing catch-up the whole time.

Interestingly, if Fisher had elected for the first-quarter field goal rather than going for fourth down, the Aggies might have been in the lead when they punted in the third quarter.

I can’t blame Fisher for his aggression early in the game. Beating Saban requires touchdowns.

After halftime, though, Alabama got fiercer, and Fisher got tight. He’d have done better to remember that voice in his head that told him to be aggressive and play to win.

Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's SEC Columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer.